WEEKLY REVIEW: 27th August 2018
THE WEEK AHEAD
Market moving numbers: 27th August – 31st August 2018:
New Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell's statement which indicated that there might be a possibility of as many as four Interest Rate hikes out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this 2018 has most certainly rattled markets, especially with the growing anti-trade sentiments which continues to shroud over the United States (U.S) economy. Nonetheless, over the course of these past four months, even negative U.S related economic data did not deter the U.S Dollar (USD) from sustaining a steady uptrend. Forecasters have been attributing this occurrence towards the more bullish FOMC statements made which indicate that levels of inflation as shown by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can potentially keep hovering ahead of the targeted 2% mark this year. The U.S Dollar Index (DX) dropped on a Friday-to-Friday basis to close at 95.16 on Friday, following the conclusion of the trade talks between U.S. and China that has yielded little progress. The USD also took a hit this week after Trump criticized the Federal Reserve once again for raising interest rates. The growing U.S. political uncertainty, reinforced by criminal convictions of Trump’s former advisors this week, also weighed on the USD, despite the upbeat FOMC Minutes that signaled a rate hike.
On August 1, the FOMC voted unanimously to keep the target range for its benchmark interest rates at 1.75% to 2.0%. While this move was largely anticipated, the team here at EssenceFX notes on the sustenance in the USD's strength as reflected by the DX which goes against the typical 'sell on fact' move usually seen. This strongly indicates that markets maintain a generally hawkish sentiment in regards to the USD and are pricing in for one more rate hike in September 2018 and a likelihood of another rate hike in December, which would then bring the total number of rate hikes to 4 in 2018 though this move was criticized by Trump. Whilst, the outlook is less uncertain for now with trade tensions escalating, the USD is expected to rise further on the view that U.S. inflation pressures will pick up as the conventional wisdom is that, any escalation in trade conflict between the U.S. and its trading partners will feed through to inflation.
Politically, while the meeting between Trump and European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker which took place in Washington on July 25 to discuss the trade conflict seemed to have fared well with Trump reporting that he and Juncker had agreed to work to lower the industrial tariffs on both sides and to increase European imports of liquified natural gas and soybeans from the U.S., among other measures, markets remain worried about the heated dispute between the U.S. and China. In regards to China, the U.S.-China trade talks ended on Thursday with no major breakthrough, while their trade war escalated with activation of another round of tariffs on US$16 billion worth of each country’s goods. This completes the first round of US$50 billion in products that Trump targeted in dispute over what U.S. officials say is the rampant theft of American technology, after US$34 billion in goods were subjected to duties in July. China has vowed reciprocal tariffs on the same amount of U.S. goods. Trump has also made good on several months of threats and imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% of aluminum from the EU, Canada and Mexico, resulting in Canada imposing tariffs against U.S. exports in retaliation for US tariffs on steel and aluminium. A decline in U.S. financial markets could be an impact that could occur as the trade wars escalates. The Mexico presidential election last month also marks a new stage for the country's relations with the U.S. President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrado has since struck a more conciliatory tone regarding Trump. While the Peso still faces uncertainty until the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is resolved, Lopez has vowed to work with the U.S. to revise the trade pact. Mexican Economy Secretary, Ildefonso Guajardo, said on Wednesday Mexico and the U.S. were close the finalizing a preliminary agreement on a new NAFTA pact which would let Canada sign on.
In regards to global politics, it has been two months since the meet up between Trump and North Korean President Kim Jung-un in Singapore in June which resulted in a signed joint statement that committed both sides to establishing new relations and a path to peace on the Korean Peninsula. While Trump declared soon after the Singapore summit that North Korea no longer posed a nuclear threat, according to a recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, there is no indication that North Korea has stopped its nuclear activities. It is becoming clear that the U.S. and North Korea interpret the pledge differently. Apparently, the U.S. wants to see a unilateral denuclearization on the part of North Korea, while North Korea sees the agreement in the broader context of the military balance of power on the Korean Peninsula. The rekindled tensions with North Korea could likely lead to a positive for gold in the weeks to come. Gold prices surged to the 1,2.05.82 level on Friday, hence holding above the critical psychological barrier at $1,200 an ounce, as Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell highlighted the central bank’s commitment to gradually raise interest rates at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
While the U.S Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is scheduled for release on Wednesday 29th August stands to be the main volatility highlight for the week, the outcome of the Canadian June GDP, scheduled for Thursday 30th August, concludes the second quarter, hence making the release more significant than usual. Monthly GDP increased by 0.5% in May and is expected have slowed down in June. Nonetheless, a higher than expected reading should be taken as hawkish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as dovish for the CAD.
The main release for the Euro Dollar (EUD) in the week ahead is the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index reading on Friday. While economists expects August inflation data to remain unchanged, a higher than expected reading is generally bullish for the EUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as bearish for the EUD.
The overhang of Brexit continues to provide an uncertain outlook for the Great Britain Pound (GBP). The initial response to Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s soft Brexit proposal had seemingly placed GBP on a firm footing. However, there was a quick reversal seen after the proposal led to the resignation of key MPs in PM May’s cabinet, most notably, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Minister David Davis, consequently weighing on the GBP as the risk of a 'no Brexit deal' scenario had increased. Nonetheless, the resumption of Brexit talks between Secretary, Dominic Raab, and his counterpart, Michel Barnier last week has helped the GBP. The GBP/USD exchange rate rally could also be affected by any further remarks about Brexit.
While prices of cryptocurrency continue to spiral downwards, Bitcoin spiked in value this week to a two-week high as it traded above the $6,800 level for the first time since August 7, as investors shrugged off the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s latest rejection of nine separate bitcoin-based exchange trade funds. In a related perspective, several recent developments have also caused us to reassess our longer term take on gold for one; the announcement of blockchain moving into the financial mainstream with IBM's dealings with certain European banks and the continued hype in cryptocurrency with more mainstream players jumping in especially post heavier support from colossal entities such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In some instances, it does lead us to question whether the IMF 'intentionally' offloaded so much of their holdings of gold onto China. Nonetheless, the team will continue to closely monitor the developments of competing Gen Z favouring currency alternatives vis-a-vis the typical age long established Gen X favored safe haven to provide you with a better overview. One strong view the team has moving along this 2018 is that falls in cryptocurrencies has somewhat led to the increase in gold prices, indicating to us a growing tendency of crypto holders to cash out their holdings in crypto and switch to the age old safe haven (gold) for protection of value.
In relation to our highlighted 'populist movement' and the psychological effects it continues to bring upon our modern day society, the team here at EssenceFX would like to reiterate based on what happened in the recent United Kingdom (U.K) general elections (GE); there are a large mass of U.K citizens which demand for a change of leadership in the country. With U.K as a precedent, it intrigues us to also reflect on the surprises the recently announced German General Elections has brought about, with the far right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party gaining strong momentum; resulting to their entry into parliament. In regards to recent 2018 Italian Elections, we witnessed more unexpected scenario's just as formerly opined by the team here at EssenceFX with the anti-EU Five-Star Movement which shocked markets by taking more than 30% of the tally. The more 'populist' or 'Eurosceptic' parties in our opinion has potential to place renewed and substantial pressure on the Euro (EUR) as they move to table their respective policies. The team here at EssenceFX will track this potential pressures in the EUR in the weeks to come. Mexico saw Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador winning its presidential election, hence setting the stage for a government that will inherit the NAFTA negotiations with Canada and the U.S., which have been stalled since June when the U.S. slapped tariffs on Mexican and Canadian steel and aluminum and both countries responded with retaliatory measures on products like U.S. pork, ketchup and Kentucky bourbon. However, in a letter to Trump delivered on July 13, Manuel Lopez has called on Trump to pursue renewed NAFTA negotiations aimed at a final agreement including all three countries in the pact; while on July 18, Trump had said that he may prioritize a separate trade deal with Mexico. Mexico and the U.S. has since then been in bilateral negotiations and appears to be getting close to striking a deal in their talks to revise NAFTA, but Canada has been sitting on the sidelines during these discussions. Should there be more headlines about the future of NAFTA, volatility might arise on MXN. Following the Mexican GE, for this 2018 we will see Columbia's GE on June 17th, Turkey's GE on June 24th, Brazil's GE on October 7th, and U.S GE on November 6th.
Nonetheless for the case of the Europeans, a recent update the team of us view which adds pertinent to the strength to the Euro is that the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stated that he wanted to create a single economic zone to “rival China and the US” as many countries on the continent emerge economically. In our view, the “deepening of economic and monetary union” objective is a difficult one to achieve as there is much public opposition to the idea of a superstate. Nonetheless, deepening global competitiveness as well as positive numbers out of Europe as of late could ignite some fresh considerations in regards to the matter.
In conclusion of this week's write-up, we would like to once again bring your focus back to the bigger picture as we close off with this question: "Will the U.S still hike Interest Rates this year?" Since the answer currently remains as somewhat 'more certain' (post Fed Powell's statement), we urge you to pick out on early trading signals to "buy on rumor and sell on fact" as currency majors have been following this trend so far, moving along 2018.